11 Jun (NucNet): Between its domestic uranium mining, uranium purchased on the international market, and uranium mined by Chinese-owned companies overseas, China could meet even the most ambitious target for nuclear expansion, thus avoiding the “troublesome and dangerous” path of reprocessing, research shows.
The research by Hui Zhang, a senior research associate at Harvard University’s Belfer Centre for Science and International Affairs, says China would need a cumulative total of about one million tonnes of uranium between now and the year 2050, much more than its entire current reserves of uranium.
Zhang’s paper says some Chinese nuclear experts advocate that China pursue plutonium reprocessing and recycling, thereby “saving” uranium. Given concerns about the relationship between reprocessing, unaccounted-for stocks of plutonium, and nuclear weapons proliferation, the problem of supplying China’s reactors with enough fuel for civilian use “may hold worldwide repercussions in the near future”, it says.
To meet its increasing demand for uranium to fuel its new nuclear power reactors, for the past 10 years central government has adopted a strategy that combines domestic production, overseas exploitation, and purchases on the world marketplace in uranium. Known as the “Three One-Third” rule, this means one-third of China’s uranium comes from domestic supply, one-third from direct international trade, and another third from overseas mining by Chinese firms.
“This outlook is promising for ensuring a long-term, stable supply and could avoid a situation in which China would have to stray into the dangerous waters of reprocessing, breeder reactors, and associated weapons-proliferation problems,” the paper says.
China will triple the number of nuclear power reactors it has in operation by 2020 according to official plans, and the country’s nuclear fleet will increase 20-fold by 2050 under some “not-yet-approved proposals”, the paper says.
It says China leads the world in new reactor construction, with 26 new nuclear power reactors under way that will produce a combined total of 27 gigawatts of electrical energy. This is in addition to the 22 reactors the country already has, which produce a total of 20 GW.
And even this might not be enough, the paper says. According to China’s State Council, China’s official policy regarding the use of nuclear energy has changed from “moderate development” to “active development.” In 2012, the council’s “Medium- and Long-Term Nuclear Power Development Plan, 2011–2020” called for at least another 11 GW by 2020, with more plants to come online in the coming decades. “All told, that makes for a remarkable total of 58 GW by 2020,” the paper says.
The paper is online: http://bit.ly/1IwKpO1
