4 Apr (NucNet): The total projected cost of investments in the complete nuclear fuel cycle in the European Union for the period from 2015 to 2050 will vary between €650bn ($738bn) and €760bn ($863bn), according to the new Illustrative Programme for Nuclear Energy, known as Pinc, released by the European Commission today.
The investment in new nuclear stations needed to replace most of the existing nuclear reactors in order to maintain a stable nuclear generation capacity over the next 35 years will amount to a figure between €350bn and €450bn, Pinc says. About 90 percent of the existing nuclear capacity will need to be replaced by 2050.
The EC estimates that electricity generation from nuclear will decrease by 2025 due to the phase-outs of nuclear energy in certain member states, but the trend will reverse after 2030 with generation capacity reaching between 95 and 105 gigawatts (GW) by 2050. The figure is lower than the current EU capacity estimated at 120 GW. In relative terms, the share of nuclear energy will fall from about 27 percent today to about 20 percent in 2050, the report says.
According to Pinc, more than 50 of the 129 reactors in commercial operation in the EU are to be shut down by 2025.
Based on the latest available data from 2014, total investment of €253bn will be needed by 2050 for the back-end of the fuel cycle. The actual decommissioning will require €123bn, while €130bn will be invested in radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel management and deep geological disposal. Pinc says approximately € 133bn of these expected costs have already been set aside in dedicated decommissioning and radioactive waste management funds spread among EU member states.
The report estimates lifetime extension and long term operation (LTO) costs at between €45bn and €50bn for existing reactors by 2050. The average LTO extension period is expected by most national regulators to be 10 to 20 years.
On the front-end of the fuel cycle, with respect to the European Energy Security Strategy, the EC aims to ensure a well-functioning internal market for nuclear fuels and to guarantee security of supply. Pinc says the focus in the coming years will be on modernizing enrichment capabilities in the EU in order to maintain the EU technological leadership. Nuclear fuel manufacturing capacities in the EU will be enough to cover the needs of western-designed reactors, while fuel licensing and fabrication for the EU’s Russian-designed reactors would take “a few years” depending on the available investment and market environment, the report says.
The EC is mandated to periodically issue a new Pinc under Article 40 of the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) Treaty in order to indicate non-binding targets and programmes for nuclear production and any necessary investment. The last Pinc update was released in 2008 before the March 2011 Fukushima-Daiichi accident.
According to the new document, the EU nuclear landscape “has undergone significant changes” including comprehensive risk and safety assessments – known as stress tests – and culminating with the adoption of “landmark legislation on nuclear safety, radioactive waste and spent fuel management and radiation protection”.
In contrast to the new Pinc, the 2008 paper did not include any investment cost estimates, but rather provided a snapshot of the status nuclear sectors in various EU member states at the time.
The 2016 Pinc also touches on aspects of the EU regulatory environment. The EC recognises that some new “first of a kind” projects in the EU have experienced delays and cost overruns and suggests a policy based on cooperation between regulators when licensing new reactors and on standardisation of nuclear reactor design by the industry.
Synchronising licensing requirements should ensure that a design qualified as safe in one country does not have to be substantially modified to meet licensing requirements elsewhere, therefore reducing time and costs, the EC said.
Industrial standardisation should ensure faster procurement processes, higher comparability and more transparent safety standards as well as increased capacity of operators to control technology and knowledge management.
In terms of new regulation, the EC also says it will propose later this year an update to Article 103 of the Euratom Treaty, which will aim to strengthen the EC’s “ability to ensure” that new investments and bilateral agreements with third countries in the field of nuclear energy comply with the Euratom Treaty and meet security of supply requirements.
Pinc says the EU must maintain its technological leadership in the nuclear domain, since it will give business opportunities for European companies and help support EU growth, jobs and competitiveness. Initiatives suggested by the EC include the future deployment of Generation-IV closed-cycle nuclear systems, research and development on small modular reactor (SMR) technology, progress at the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) in France, and maintaining an “appropriate” expertise level in the nuclear field through continuous training and education.
Nuclear energy, a low carbon technology and significant contributor to security of supply, is expected to remain an “important component” of the EU’s energy mix by 2050, the report concludes.
The report is online: http://bit.ly/1YarqPP
