13 Nov (NucNet): Strong government policies to electrify the energy sector could see nuclear capacity increase moderately until 2040, but with a significant geographical shift towards China, India and Russia, the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2018 says.
The report, published today, says China could add 111 GW of capacity by 2040, with India adding 32 GW and Russia adding 11 GW. China’s current capacity is 37 GW, India’s is 7 GW and Russia’s is 28 GW.
The report says, however, that there could be a wave of retirements to 2040 as the industry faces challenges in the leading markets of the US, Europe and Japan. Retirements of 61 GW could take installed nuclear capacity in the US to 44 GW. In the EU, retirements of 102 GW could see capacity fall to 22 GW, and in Japan retirements of 33 GW could result in a drop in capacity to 8 GW.
There is huge scope to increase cost-effective deployment of renewables and nuclear power, the report concludes.
The figures are based on what the report calls its Future is Electric Scenario, which examines what would happen to electricity demand if economic opportunities for electrification were maximised. For instance, in the scenario by 2040, almost half of the car fleet goes electric; electricity makes rapid inroads into heating needs for buildings and industry; a digital economy connects nearly all consumer devices and appliances; and full electricity access is achieved.
In another scenario, the Sustainable Development Scenario, the IEA sees a route to meeting various climate, air quality and universal access goals. In this scenario, global energy-related CO2 emissions peak around 2020 and then enter a steep and sustained decline, fully in line with the trajectory required to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
The report says major transformations are underway for the global energy sector, from growing electrification to the expansion of renewables, upheavals in oil production and globalisation of natural gas markets. Across all regions and fuels, policy choices made by governments will determine the shape of the energy system of the future, it says.
