16 May (NucNet): Global energy consumption will double by mid-century and if demand is to be met the energy mix should include one-third nuclear power, a scientist has said.
James Conca, senior scientist with the US-based R.J. Lee Group and director of their Centre for Laboratory Sciences in Pasco, Washington, said without a more sustainable and balanced energy mix, the increase in fossil fuels will be “appalling and costly”, and the environmental effects devastating.
“To counter this future dystopia, we propose a one third fossil fuel, one third renewable and one third nuclear mix,” Mr Conca said in an article on the Forbes website. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, nuclear's share of global energy production today is about 13 percent.
As part of the proposed mix, Mr Conca said there would need to be 1,700 new nuclear reactors to produce electricity totalling 10 trillion kilowatt hours a year from Generation III and Generation IV designs including small modular reactors.
All existing coal would need to be replaced with a combination of combined cycle gas and fluidised bed coal reactors which are somewhat cleaner, and three trillion kWhrs/year would need to come from hydroelectric.
Over two million wind turbines of three megawatts or more would be needed along with over one trillion kWhrs/year from other alternatives such as wave, tidal and biogas.
The cost to implement and operate this mix will be about 65 trillion US dollars (51 trillion euro) over 50 years, about $30 trillion of that in construction alone. A business-as-usual mix of two-thirds fossil fuel would cost about the same to provide 30 trillion kWhrs/yr, with slightly less capital costs but more fuel, and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs.
About two percent of global GDP will be needed annually to provide for either of these futures. Financing this level of investment will be the real challenge, Mr Conca said.
Mr Conca’s energy blog is online: www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/05/13/what-is-our-energy-future
