Output from today’s mines expected to halve between 2030 and 2040
A nuclear energy renaissance could create a shortfall in the supply of uranium with output from today’s mines expected to halve between 2030 and 2040 as existing deposits are exhausted.
According to a report from the London-based World Nuclear Association on 5 September, the growing interest in deploying nuclear plants to meet climate targets and for energy security has led to significant increases in projections for future nuclear capacity, and demand for nuclear fuel cycle services.
Global uranium requirements for reactors could rise by a third to 86,000 tonnes by 2030, and to 150,000 tonnes by 2040, according to the report.
But output from today’s mines is expected to halve between 2030 and 2040 as existing deposits are exhausted, leaving a “significant gap” that threatens the nuclear power revival.
The report called on the industry to secure investment to locate more uranium and extract it from current as well as new and idle mines to avoid a supply crunch.
“Geopolitical instability, notably resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war, has also led to increased interest in nuclear power for energy security and sovereignty,” the report said.
“The same instability has had significant implications for the globalised market for nuclear fuel cycle services, with utilities, suppliers and governments in North America and Europe pursuing opportunities to diversify supplies.”
The report said primary production of uranium from mines, conversion plants and enrichment plants, continues to supply most demand for nuclear reactors around the globe.
In the near term, secondary supplies of uranium will continue to play a role in bridging the gap between supply and demand.
Diminishing Role Of Secondary Supplies
However, secondary supply is projected to have a gradually diminishing role in the world market, decreasing from the current level in supplying 11-14% of reactor uranium requirements to 4-11% in 2050.
Secondary supply refers to uranium obtained from sources other than newly mined ore, primarily from existing stockpiles and recycled materials.
Earlier this week Canadian uranium supplier Cameco said development delays at its McArthur River mine in Saskatchewan to new mining areas are expected to impact its 2025 production forecast, further adding to pressure n supply.
The Cameco announcement came days after Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan’s state-owned uranium producer, reported plans to lower output in 2026, saying that despite firm long-term prices, market conditions do not support a return to full capacity.
In a corporate update, the company said its production will be about 10% lower compared to earlier targets, dropping from 32,777 tonnes of U3O8 to 29,697 tonnes.
Kazakhstan is the world’s leading uranium producer, responsible for over 40% of global production, with significant reserves.
US president Donald Trump said earlier this year he would fast-track uranium projects under an emergency declaration to restore US energy independence.
