Unplanned Events

Fukushima-Daiichi / Nuclear Shutdown Led To More Deaths Than Accident, Says Report

By David Dalton
30 October 2019

Reduced electricity consumption caused by offline reactors and price increases ‘led to an increase in mortality’
 Nuclear Shutdown Led To More Deaths Than Accident, Says Report
A decrease in electricity consumption because of higher prices following the March 2011 Fukushima-Daiichi accident in Japan led to an increase in mortality that significantly outweighs the mortality from the accident itself, a report concludes.

The report, published by Germany-based private economic research institute the Institute of Labour Economics (IZA), says after the accident, all nuclear power plants ceased operation and nuclear power was replaced by fossil fuels, causing an exogenous increase in electricity prices.
Increased fossil fuel imports led to rises in the price of electricity by as much as 38% in some regions. These higher electricity prices led to a decrease in electricity consumption, particularly during times of the year with greater heating demand.

“Given the role that climate control plays in providing protection from extreme weather events, we find that the reduced electricity consumption caused an increase in mortality,” the report says.

The estimated increase in mortality from higher electricity prices “significantly outweighs” the mortality from the accident itself, suggesting the decision to cease nuclear production caused more harm than good.

The report says the higher electricity prices resulted in at least an additional 1,280 deaths during 2011-2014. Since the data only covers the 21 largest cities in Japan, which represents 28% of the total population, the total effects for the entire nation “are even larger”.

Meanwhile, the report says, the number of deaths due to the Fukushima-Daiichi accident is much lower. No deaths have yet to be directly attributable to radiation exposure, though projections estimate a cumulative 130 deaths.

An estimated 1,232 deaths occurred as a result of the evacuation after the accident.

“Therefore, the deaths from the higher electricity prices likely outnumber the deaths from the accident in only four years if we extrapolate our estimates to the entire country, and almost certainly outnumber the deaths over a longer time period given that the higher electricity prices persisted beyond the end of our study,” the report concludes.

“This suggests that ceasing nuclear energy production has contributed to more deaths than the accident itself.”

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