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IAEA / Projections Show Uncertainty For Nuclear

By David Dalton
11 September 2019

Projections Show Uncertainty For Nuclear
International Atomic Energy Agency projections to 2030 suggest that global nuclear generating capacity could decline by some 8% or – in a different scenario – climb by 25%.

By 2050, nuclear capacity is seen falling by 6% in the low scenario and rising by 80% in the high case.

Compared with last year, the new estimates to 2050 are down by 33 GW(e) in the high case and up by 15 GW in the low case, the IAEA said.

The 39th edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 offers a mixed estimate of nuclear power’s future contribution to global electricity generation, depending in part on whether significant new capacity can be added to offset potential reactor retirements.

The IAEA said the 2019 projections contain fewer uncertainties compared with previous years due to recent announcements on the future of the existing fleet in some regions and long-term plans for expansion.

But it warned that significant new capacity may be needed to offset possible reactor retirements due to age, competitiveness or other factors.

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